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The Enthusiasm Gap – Who’s Really Ahead?

I understand that Joe Biden left his basement yesterday to travel to Pittsburgh where, according to the Biden campaign, the Democrat candidate would ask the core question of “Are you safe in Donald Trump’s America?”

The event was billed as a “surprise visit” to western Pennsylvania.  The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported on Sunday that “Details on the exact time and location of where Mr. Biden will appear were not immediately disclosed by the Biden campaign.”  I have been scanning print media to determine exactly where the event took place, but it evidently is still “undisclosed” because the details of the visit have not been reported in local media in Pennsylvania. I have seen reports on social media that the event was held at a repurposed steel mill property near Pittsburgh, where an undisclosed number of Biden supporters turned out.

Apparently, press coverage of the event was also limited.  Gateway Pundit reported that seven reporters attended the event, all of whom were safely distanced (I refuse to say “socially distanced” any more) from one another in large circles drawn on the floor of the room.

After the event, with a quick stop at a firehouse to drop off some boxes of pizza, Biden was whisked back to the airport, where he apparently avoided any contact with pretty much everybody by stepping out of his vehicle and onto a waiting plane, just as he did when he left Delaware earlier in the day.

Friends, this is not exactly “hitting the campaign trail.”  This is a speech delivered somewhere other than Joe’s basement with all the pomp, circumstance and enthusiasm as a visit to the DMV.  Why would the Biden campaign not publicize this speech, rather than billing it as a “surprise visit?”  Check me on this, but presidential political campaigns thrive on the optics of flag waving crowds welcoming the candidate to their town, lining the streets with signs and banners, and then loudly supporting their candidate at the event venue.  None of this occurred in Pittsburgh on Monday. The Biden campaign can cover the lack of turnout to the event being a “surprise.”  It appears that the Biden campaign finally senses what we have seen for weeks.  The enthusiasm for their candidate is plummeting.

None other than The Washington Post sounded the alarm for Biden supporters when it reported as far back as June that although Biden led in the polling, there was a significant gap in voter enthusiasm as between Biden and Trump supporters.  The Post reported that whereas only 74% of Biden supports said they would definitely vote for Biden, that number jumped to 87% for Trump supporters. 

More recently, Gallup reported that more Republicans were satisfied with their candidate than Democrats.

What is striking in that graphic is that 52% of Democrats wish someone else were their nominee.

In addition, there are reports that some polling is being suppressed as Trump has cut into Biden’s lead.

Despite the enthusiasm and quiet support for President Trump, Axios reports that one group is suggesting that although the President may appear to capture what Trump would likely call a huuuge win on election night, once all the ballots, including mail in ballots, are counted, perhaps days after the election, the results could swing just as dramatically in the other direction.

Even though progressives are apparently fine with mass gatherings to protest, they are apparently afraid of voting in person, which could lead to a disproportionate number of mail in votes for Biden being tallied days or even weeks after election day.  The animated model in the linked article is disturbing, at best, and may be a portent of all manner of mayhem after November 3.  However, according to the article, the model is based on “recent state and national polling and estimates” which as we have seen, may not be accurate.

All of this is to say, that despite what you are seeing in the media and feel in your bones, the election is far from over…one way or the other…and may not be decided until the Electoral College convenes, if then.  God help us.


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