The first detailed look at battleground states after the two party conventions showed that not much has changed. On Tuesday morning, Morning Consult, which frequently conducts broad state-level polling, released a large series of polls conducted over the weekend. This is the first such series of polls taken after the conclusion of the Republican convention last week.
The polling found that most swing states were relatively unchanged in the wake of the conventions. Overall, the poll found that Biden led Trump 51-43 percent before the convention. Afterward, the result was exactly the same.
The poll also looked at 11 individual battleground states and compared results from before and after the conventions. Those states with the leader and the margins are listed below:
- Arizona: Before – Trump +2 – After – Biden + 7
- Colorado: Before – Biden +10 – After – Biden +10
- Georgia: Before – Trump +1 – After – Biden +3
- Florida: Before – Biden +5 – After – Biden +2
- Michigan: Before – Biden +6 – After – Biden +10
- Minnesota: Before – Biden +8 – After – Biden +7
- North Carolina: Before – Biden +3 – Biden +2
- Ohio: Before – Trump +4 – After – Trump +5
- Pennsylvania – Biden +6 – After Biden +4
- Texas: Before – Trump +1 – After – Trump +1
- Wisconsin: Before – Biden +6 – After – Biden +9
So far, neither candidate seems to have gotten much of a convention bounce. With the exception of Arizona, the only state where polling flipped, most of the changes are within the 2-4 percent margin of error, although both campaigns can point to bright spots that may or may not be significant.
One interesting point is Wisconsin, where riots in Kenosha figured prominently in the news over the past week. Joe Biden expanded his lead in the Badger State by three points despite the unrest sparked by the police shooting of Jacob Blake. The article accompanying the poll notes that Biden has maintained his standing with Wisconsin’s white voters regardless of educational level.
Based on this polling data, if the election were held today Joe Biden would flip Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This would translate into a Democratic victory in the Electoral College by a 349-189 margin.
Under a best-case scenario for Republicans in which every state within the margin of error broke for Trump, Republicans would retain Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. However, that would not be enough to win the Electoral College, which would fall to Biden 289-249.
The poll found that Joe Biden is in a stronger position than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton led by two points before the conventions that year and three points afterward. At that point, 17 percent of voters were still undecided and most of those voters eventually broke for Trump. This year, Biden leads by eight points with only six percent of voters undecided. Both numbers were unchanged before and after the conventions.
So far, the post-convention bump seems to have been limited to Biden’s gains in Arizona. Elsewhere, neither conventions nor civil unrest seem to be swaying many voters. Unlike 2016, when Donald Trump benefited from Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity as well as from being a blank slate, voters have had four years to come to know and dislike President Trump. The president is running out of time to win over voters but very few are open to his pitch.
If you would like to continue the discussion on social media, you can visit David Thornton’s Facebook page or follow him on Twitter.