A survey of American infectious disease experts conducted last week suggests that the United States will see around 47,000 deaths due to COVID-19 before May 1st.
Experts are not wholly married to this number, however. The survey shows a 90% confidence level that the total American death toll will be between 32,000 and 82,000 by the end of the month.
The week before, the same survey suggested that there would be 660,000 total U.S. cases by April 12, with an 80% confidence level that the number of cases would be between 525,000 and 1,010,000. By the end of the day on April 12th, there were 551,000 confirmed cases.
Most experts surveyed are hopeful that the peak in new cases is near and, perhaps, lower than previously expected. Even so, some experts believe that the national peak will not occur until deep into the summer, perhaps even into August.
Regardless, the experts’ projected death toll is not far off from other expectations.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model is one such example. The go-to source for coronavirus projections for the national media, the model currently predicts over 54,000 COVID-19 deaths before this month is over. Just thirteen days ago, on April 7th, that same model projected 72,000 deaths by the end of April.
According to John Hopkins University, the current death count in the U.S. stands at just over 35,000.