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Speaking of the Data

In 2018, the motor vehicle fatality rate in the United States was only 36,560. Less than 4,000 people drowned in pools. In the 2017-2018 period, roughly 61,000 people died of the seasonal flu. The government estimates that 606,880 people died of cancer in 2019.

It is true that the cure for COVID-19 should not be worse than COVID-19. It is also true that there is an acceptable level of risk in restarting the economy. But we have only just ramped up testing. There is still a delay. The virus is still spreading.

What is the acceptable risk here? If the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1%, as Dr. Fauci thinks it actually is, and one person spreads it to 3 other people, if we let it spread like the seasonal flu, even I a non-math major, can do the basic calculations.

In 2018, the seasonal flu infected 44,802,629 Americans. One person is presumed to infect 1.3 people with the seasonal flu. So let’s double that number for COVID-19 and keep a conservative estimate. But remember that there is no vaccine for COVID-19 like there is with the flu. Nonetheless, let’s go for the most conservative “it’s nothing more than the seasonal flu” comparison and we get 89,605,258 COVID-19 infections.

Again, remember, the number will probably be higher because there is no vaccine and we actually do now know 1 person infects 3 people. So the real number would be over 100,000,000. But let’s go with the super conservative estimate of what it would look like if we treated this exactly like the seasonal flu or the H1N1 flu.

Well, the seasonal flu and H1N1 both kill between 0.1% and 0.3% of those infected. COVID-19 kills, conservatively 1%. That means COVID-19 would kill 896,053 people in the most conservative estimate possible. Please note that though COVID-19 gives “flu like symptoms,” it is not an influenza like H1N1. So all your clever memes about H1N1 don’t actually apply.

In other words, if we treat COVID-19 just like the seasonal flu, the virus will kill more people than cancer will kill and will do so in a few months, not a year as part of a multi-year cancer struggle.

If you are okay with close to a million Americans dying so you can go back to work, okay.

But let’s be really honest about what is going on here. President Trump and Vice President Pence are relying on the expertise of the Surgeon General, the head of the CDC, the head of the National Institutes of Health, and various other MDs, Ph.Ds, and other experts to give them informed opinion and also facts.

You’re relying on internet memes and your emotions to tell you it is not true.

It really is fantastic to see a bunch of people who think the President is always right decide the President may be right, but the people advising him are all wrong.

Consider a few other points.

Dr. Fauci was in government advising the President when H1N1 started spreading. He did not advocate the nation shutting down then. Why? Was it to protect Barack Obama or because H1N1 spread a lot like influenza because it is, in fact, a strain of influenza and we can manage that one?

Great Britain and the Netherlands decided to do exactly what some of you are advocating — going for herd immunity and continuing on with everyone’s daily lives. Now they are rapidly scrambling to shut down their nations and keep everyone at home. Why is that? Because they want to cause economic calamity or to hurt President Trump’s re-election or because they realize their hospitals will be overwhelmed and a ton of people will die?

There is a cost to keeping everything shut down. And there are reasonable mortality expectations in life generally. We do business every day knowing someone is going to die from something. But we also know if we all stay put in our homes for 2 weeks, we could save close to a million people and then all go back to work.

Maybe hydroxychloroquine and a z pack will save us. I hope so. We will soon find out. But in the meantime, I think rational Americans should be willing to say we can take the two-week hit to save a million lives.

Or is the President wrong about that?

By the way and to repeat myself, H1N1 and the seasonal flu are both influenza strains. COVID-19 is not. Those of you digging your heels in on the argument that it is just another flu are not only wrong on the merits of your argument, but also on the basic science of the matter.

To be clear, I am not advocating shutting down places for months. I am trying to explain why we cannot treat COVID-19 like the seasonal flu.

It is possible to be opposed to a complete global economic shutdown for months and also think 2 weeks on your couch is a fair compromise to slow down the viral spread. I think if we get to a month of no commerce, we’re going to start seeing suicides and riots that will make us rethink how we’re doing things.

But I also think we are already seeing hospitals overwhelmed in ways they have never been and we should, perhaps, trust the people with more knowledge, expertise, and on the ground experience than we have.

The White House economic team has mapped out the entire country by zipcode and believes, after 19 days, we should be able to slowly reopen parts of the country to full commerce. I agree with that. We shouldn’t extrapolate that the whole country will wind up like NYC.

That’s why I like Brian Kemp’s approach here in Georgia of letting cities, counties, and regions of the state design just how locked down they should be. 

But let’s not kid ourselves. We are dealing with a new virus to which no one has immunity and it kills 1% minimum of those who get it. And for those who say it is probably less than that because way more people have it, that 1% is the revision. The global average is actually 3.5% to 4% right now, including here in Georgia. But extrapolating how many more people have gotten it and didn’t realize it, they’ve reduced that to 1%. 

How did they do that? Among other ways, they looked at all the people who got tested for the flu due to flu-like symptoms, but it came back negative. It has been a pretty good proxy. And that leads people like Dr. Fauci to conclude 1% mortality is more accurate than the global number we are seeing. That 1% is still ten times more deadly than the flu.

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