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The Democrats’ State of Play

Despite the pile-on in Charleston, Bernie Sanders continues in the polling lead. Joe Biden will win South Carolina. Super Tuesday is two days later. The Democratic Party is in full freakout mode over Sanders. Republicans are giddy at the prospects of a Sanders nomination.

The upside for Democrats is that they have realized Bernie Sanders is a threat to their establishment far sooner than the GOP realized Trump was a threat to theirs. The downside for the Democrats is that they have fully proportional primaries. With the GOP, at least, there were primaries where a candidate could martial his forces and win all the delegates. Democrats do not. As long as a candidate clears fifteen percent of the vote, the candidate gets delegates.

Bernie Sanders has the most delegates. On Tuesday, despite Mike Bloomberg spending more than all the other candidates combined in California, Sanders will win the state. Polling estimates right now have Sanders winning 270 delegates in California. He is also surging in Texas and could tie or beat Biden there in large part because Mike Bloomberg is taking votes from Biden. Pollsters who have asked about support with and without Bloomberg have found Biden beats Sanders in many more states without Bloomberg on the ballot.

Super Tuesday will see races in Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Polling data is limited in most of these states, but what we have suggests Sanders will win most of them. One week later, voters will vote in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington. It will not be till March 17 that Bloomberg has a really big night. He should shut out Sanders in Florida. Florida has 248 delegates to the Democrat convention. Bloomberg and Biden are going to take all the delegates according to current polling.

Therein lies the problem. Please subscribe to my substack site to read the rest.

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