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Democrats Need More Than Poll Numbers to Beat Trump

To beat Trump, Democrats will need sane positions on issues that win them the states they need for an electoral victory, or they'll need a miracle. I think too many Democrats are counting on the miracle. Ut sit.

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows practically every Democrat beating President Trump in a national election. Even Elizabeth Warren is +4 points.

Versus Trump:

  • Warren +4
  • Biden +7
  • Sanders +8
  • Buttigieg +4

Of course, this matters very little. First of all, the Electoral College dictates the winner, not the national popular vote, despite Warren’s fantasies. (Shame on her, she was a Harvard Law professor!) Second, it’s early in the primary season, and these hypotheticals ring very differently than a locked-in nominee versus Trump.

Third, common sense. James Carville has the benefit a surfeit of common sense, and add to that he’s a genuine person, and genuinely a nice guy. Vox published a little chat with Carville, who said he’s “scared to death” about 2020 for Democrats.

We have candidates on the debate stage talking about open borders and decriminalizing illegal immigration. They’re talking about doing away with nuclear energy and fracking. You’ve got Bernie Sanders talking about letting criminals and terrorists vote from jail cells. It doesn’t matter what you think about any of that, or if there are good arguments — talking about that is not how you win a national election. It’s not how you become a majoritarian party.

In 2016, Trump was able to resonate with the American public–that portion of the public that hadn’t decided they’d elect Lucifer over Trump–by simply pointing to Hillary Clinton and just a couple of issues (extreme gun control, health care, and energy policy are enough, add to that immigration).

This year, the Democrats, listening to their bicoastal elite and media echo chamber, have tripled down on the horrors that lost them 2016. Open borders won’t fly in the Electoral College, where border states like Texas and Arizona reject it. Whoever the Democrats nominate in California can win by +40 points and it won’t change the electoral reality.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio: nuclear energy, fracking, and jobs are the issues. And of course, no Democrat will flip a single red state by advocating gun confiscation. Trump will turn out his evangelical tribe, despite not being one himself, simply because Democrats refuse to recognize any pro-life values.

Christopher Supin, writing in the New York Daily News, built a case for Mike Bloomberg, titled “How not to lose to Donald Trump.” It’s not much of a case: a billionaire with a “fresh face.” A man who commands “data.” But it’s not data that will beat Trump. Hillary was swimming in data and lost.

To beat Trump, Democrats will need sane positions on issues that win them the states they need for an electoral victory, or they’ll need a miracle. I think too many Democrats are counting on the miracle. Ut sit.

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