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An Unscientific Observation From the Ground in New Hampshire

I think New Hampshire may send a message to the former veep: you're invisible here. I am thinking he'll finish fifth, behind Klobuchar. It's going to be a disaster for Biden--but this might hurt the New Hampshire primary's influence more than it hurts Joe. With Steyer and Bloomberg sitting out NH on purpose, by 2024, people might be saying "who cares?" to Iowa and "where?" to New Hampshire.

My brother tells me that Joe Biden yard signs are invisible. As in not found anywhere he has been. My brother lives in the seacoast region of New Hampshire, where we both grew up. There are “pockets of Warren and Mayor Pete signs out and Sanders too. No Biden signs from Exeter to Manchester,” he texted.

An update this morning: “Saw [Biden’s] first yard sign yesterday.”

“See more [Tulsi] Gabbard support than Biden,” he continued. “Even see Amy America signs out.”

“Warren and Mayor Pete have staff on the ground. Yang is mailing.” And Sanders never “entirely dismantled his people from last run.” In other words, Biden is invisible.

However, Biden is winning the “let’s insult the voters” contest once again. This, from Hampton, the town where I went to high school.

Nice job, Joe. That will win you some votes.

My brother travels around the state for his son’s track meets. It’s unscientific, but yard signs speak volumes. And the lack of yard signs means there’s really zero support for Joe Biden. That doesn’t mean he’ll get zero votes. It does mean he likely won’t finish in the top three.

A fourth place finish for Joe will be hailed as his swan song by Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren. But Biden has legs to make it to the convention. It’s totally unclear that Buttigieg can do that without a surprise in South Carolina, or an unlikely victory over Sanders in NH.

In South Carolina, Buttigieg is polling fifth, way behind Warren, Sanders, and billionaire Steyer, who is blanketing the state with media. Also, Buttigieg’s staff problems, his optics problems from the Iowa “Shadow, Inc.” debacle, and his confusing word salads will hamper him. Biden has a lot of support in South Carolina and Nevada.

I think New Hampshire may send a message to the former veep: you’re invisible here. I am thinking he’ll finish fifth, behind Klobuchar. It’s going to be a disaster for Biden–but this might hurt the New Hampshire primary’s influence more than it hurts Joe. With Steyer and Bloomberg sitting out NH on purpose, by 2024, people might be saying “who cares?” to Iowa and “where?” to New Hampshire.

Then again, if Biden falls, things might be different. He definitely lacks support in the Granite State, and the yard sign invisibility test, though unscientific, is probably a good indication of how bad things are for Joe.

Biden will emerge from New Hampshire damaged but functioning. Sanders will claim a triumph. The wildcards will be Steyer and Bloomberg. This is very much a horse race, but Joe Biden is getting a very slow start out of the gate.

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