In October 2016, the AJC voter poll had Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 4%. In the actual election, Trump beat Clinton by greater than that margin. Now, Democrats are flinging their worry stone into the “Georgia is purple” pond trying to make some waves.
I guarantee you that Bernie Sanders could not beat Donald Trump in Georgia. Neither could Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, or Kamala Harris (who is polling at 1% against her own party’s candidates in New Hampshire, which overwhelmingly voted Trump in the Republican primary in 2016). The only candidate who has a chance to beat Trump, at this point, in Georgia is Joe Biden.
Given the wide range of possibilities in this AJC poll, I expect the results are near worthless on the question of who will be the next president.
What is useful is that a majority of those polled are in favor of the impeachment inquiry, if not the actual act of impeachment, of President Trump. Georgia voters are split on the issue of removal. Not to be a broken record, but I think Trump is okay with this–and in fact would like to be impeached, but not removed. If the president is impeached and not convicted in the Senate, where could these polls go?
There’s very little left to talk about other than a good economy, jobs, and Trump’s agenda once impeachment and endless investigations are off the table. This is why I think Democrats would be wise to keep the impeachment pot simmering, but not boiling, even if it costs a few incumbents their seats in Congress. But I doubt the president will let the pot just simmer. He wants it to boil.
Part of the boiling process is enduring these meaningless polls showing who will whip Trump “if the election were held today.” The election is not being held today. And it’s not a plurality that elects, it’s the electoral college. In electoral math, Trump isn’t doing so badly: Even Vox says so.
Let’s dispense with the hysterics of a Georgia battleground, and Stacey Abrams’ call to battle. This is Trump’s race to lose, and in Georgia, at this point, he’s fairly safe except from Joe Biden. I realize that’s not a story worth the AJC’s time, but that’s the truth.