I am sure there are anecdotes out there and I am sure there is data. I am one of the people who did not vote for President Trump in 2016 and plan to vote for him in 2020. But I wonder how many there honestly are who are now not voting for him.
I say honestly because I am sure there will be people who claim they voted for him and now hate him and will never do it again, but are in fact members of L’Resistance and always have been.
When I get on social media, it seems the people who opposed the President in 2016 are in one of two camps. They either will now vote for him or they are just way louder about their opposition.
But heading into 2020 screaming about the President does not mean one who voted against him in 2016 will suddenly now be voting twice against him. It is still one vote.
My suspicion is that despite the daily chaos and cacophony and even the polling showing terrible numbers of the President in swing states, he may very well be able to pull it off because the Democrats are turning people off and his base is holding steady.
Again, and I think this is worth emphasizing even though anecdote is not data — the people screaming loudly about the President now may have been quietly opposed in 2016, but just because they are louder now does not mean there are more of them.
Also, the election is still a year a way.
The caveat here, however, is that events change things. While most evangelicals stood solidly with the President, a number of them may stay home depending on the evidence in impeachment and he can only afford to lose 70,000 — the number of votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that gave him an electoral college win. Events change things. But they change things in both directions.