I support the pro-life legislation being passed in states, but I think their passage will ultimately doom President Trump’s re-election.
I think this not because I think these laws will mobilize Democrats. They are already mobilized. I think this because I think the Supreme Court will strike them down and hurt conservative turn out.
President Trump has added two picks to the Supreme Court. I think Neil Gorsuch would absolutely vote to let federalism work. I think Kavanaugh is more cautious and would want more than a 5-4 majority. I think John Roberts, in the words of one of his colleagues, is a safe seventh vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.
The Supreme Court may allow some of these laws to proceed and give states more leeway, but I really do think Roberts would join the Court’s liberals to preserve the status quo and I would not be surprised to see Kavanaugh join them.
Decisions that would preserve Roe, particularly with a Trump pick joining the majority, would depress some segments of the conservative movement that totally invested in the line that holding their noses to vote for Trump would see Roe overturned.
And that will matter in 2020.