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Despite Swing In Independents, Democrats Still Favored In House

GOP lead in House still falling despite 28-point swing by Independents after Kavanaugh hearing

The screaming, unhinged protesters may be unpopular with most Americans, including a number of independents, but they still may not be enough to save the Republicans from keeping the House. The blistering battle to confirm Justice Kavanaugh revealed in a new CNN/SSRS poll that 58 percent of independents disapproved of the way the Democrats handled the nomination process. That compared to 30 percent of independents who approved the left’s tactics.

Even with that, Democrats have to win only 23-seats to overtake the GOP in the House this November. With both bases energized, in Politico’s recent race ratings, 68 seats currently held by Republicans remain in play

Even as momentum started to shift since the Kavanaugh hearings, history is not on the GOP’s side. Going back to 1910, only three times has a President’s party gained House seats in the mid-terms. In 1938, Democrats gained nine seats under President Roosevelt, in 1998, Democrats gained five seats, while in 2002, Republicans had a net gain of eight seats under President George W. Bush. The average loss during the mid-term elections for the party in the White House, 37 seats.

In 2016, Trump was able to flip large parts of Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The question remains, were those voters for Trump or just anti-Hillary? In Iowa, President Trump won the state by nine points in 2016. Now, his approval rating is negative eight. That is a net loss of 17 points.

Over the next three weeks, look for the GOP to cast Democrats as an “angry mob” and as simply a resistance organization out to destroy the rule of law. This recent trend has moved the focus off of President Trump.

Jeff Roe, who is advising Senator Ted Cruz’s reelection bid, said, “their (the left) tactics are too hot. They insult Republicans and turn off independents even more than the prospect of impeachment does,” Roe said, adding that other GOP candidates he’s advising are also taking aim at Democrats as a mob-like party. “We’ve used it everywhere because it’s effective.”

With Trump scheduled to campaign more and more, look for the Democrats to put the focus back on the unpopular President. This contrast between angry mobs and a resentful President is where this all should play out. In the end, a month is a lifetime in politics. My best forecast right now, it sure seems like a blue wave in the House and a red-tide in the Senate.

Photo credit: Bloomberg

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