By Erick Erickson
Republicans and Trump supporters should not get overly confident from the data as the President’s overall popularity in states he won is headed in the wrong trajectory. But there is increasing data showing that, contrary to conventional wisdom or anything you’d get on television or in newspapers, Democrats are actually viewed less favorably than the President in the places that matter.
Salena Zito had a piece in the New York Post over the weekend highlighting the struggles of the few remaining Blue Dog Democrats — the so called moderate to conservative Democrats in districts that lean right. Now
Josh Kraushaar has data from a Democrat pollster who conducted a poll for Democrats.
The poll surveyed working-class white voters in pivotal districts that Democrats are targeting in the midterms. Despite the Trump turmoil in Washington, Republicans held a 10-point lead on the generic ballot (43-33 percent) among these blue-collar voters. Democrats hold a whopping 61 percent disapproval rating among these voters, with only 32 percent approving. Even Trump’s job-approval rating is a respectable 52 percent with the demographic in these swing districts.
Democrats maintain that with robust economic messaging, they can move those numbers in their favor. But the results show how difficult that task will be. By a stunning 35-point margin, blue-collar white voters believe that Republicans will be better at improving the economy and creating jobs than Democrats.
I remember one of the survey points from the election exits that showed, among Obama voters who voted for Trump, they thought Clinton was more interested in putting men in women’s bathrooms than in putting people back to work. You would think the Democrats would have learned their lesson on this, but they have been so busy blaming Russia for stealing the election they cannot fathom there are voters who hate them more than Trump.
But there are and they are in the crucial districts Democrats need to take back the House. They are also majorities in states where Democrats will be on defense trying to hold Senate seats next year. Democrats, with the rise of Barack Obama, thought they could conclude the culture war by putting men in women’s bathrooms, gays in the military, and forcing every Christian bigot in the country to bake cakes for same sex weddings. Turns out these voters really do just want to be left alone and left to be able to disagree. They are not supportive of the Democrats’ cultural, leftwing homogeneity.
So long as the loudest voices on the Democrat side want to persecute Christians, claim boys can become girls, and demand you turn off your air conditioner to save the planet, they are going to have a hard time connecting with a lot of voters. On top of that, if President Trump played his cards right, he could potentially persuade a small but meaningful number of black and hispanic voters to head in his direction too. Ironically, it would all be because of cultural issues.
To be sure, the President is the least popular President we have seen six months in to an administration. There is no getting around that fact. But there is also no getting around the fact that polling in places that matter — and San Francisco, Washington, and New York do not — the President is vastly more popular than the people who would take your guns, turn off your air conditioner, shut down your coal mine job, and make your daughter shower with a dude. Making the situation even more dire for the Democrats, they do not only not get this, but they hold all these voters in absolute contempt, truly seeing them as bitterly clinging to guns and religion. It is hard for Democrats to find common ground with these voters when it is so obvious the Democrats despise the other side. They see these blue collar voters not political opponents, but destroyers of the planet, would be slave traders, and homophobic, close minded bigots.