It is a truth that those of us who are #NeverTrump have to admit and accept. There is no guarantee that dumping Trump as the GOP nominee will guarantee victory in November. In fact, if the GOP ditches Trump in Cleveland next week and the new nominee loses, the Trump supporters will easily blame all of us and never admit how bad it would be with him.
That is the truth.
But the truth is also that Donald Trump will not win. Not only will Donald Trump not win, but his nomination assures the GOP of losing the Senate and potentially the House. His nomination jeopardizes Republican holds on Governor’s Mansions and state legislatures. His loss guarantees we lose the Supreme Court for a generation.
The truth is that the GOP may not win this year no matter what. But the truth is also that ditching Trump at least gives the GOP a fighting chance.
To be sure, there will be some who are so disaffected by the GOP ditching Trump that they will walk away. That is absolutely true. Ditching Trump absolutely means there will be some people who just give up and go home. But the truth is also that many of Trump’s supporters are absolutely committed to stopping Hillary Clinton and they will not go home.
Likewise, replacing Trump with a better candidate ensures the GOP does better with hispanic voters, black voters, women, and college educated white voters. The latter is a demographic that has never gone against the GOP, but is doing so this year.
In short, while ditching Trump would mean a loss of some voters, that loss would be overwhelmed by the influx of voters of all demographics. In fact, the GOP would have the perfect winning message if its delegates beat Trump. The GOP dumped Trump and the Democrats clung to Clinton.
I suspect the sigh of relief from the overwhelming number of voters that the GOP spared them a Trump nomination would generate lots of good will and also make the race exciting again.
Right now the GOP is having trouble fielding operations in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, and other swing states. They are also having trouble getting donors to donate. All these problems directly stem from Trump’s nomination. Ditching Trump would incentivize donors to give and activists to get active. Likewise, the new nominee would have an additional month to organize.
Whether the delegates resurrect the Presidential career of Marco Rubio, who would reverse the GOP’s declines with hispanics and women or with Scott Walker who would mitigate damage in the blue collar community while returning women to the fold or even Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney, the GOP can do no worse damage to itself than Donald Trump, but might go a long way toward winning.
The truth is that dumping Trump does not guarantee a win in November, but keeping Trump guarantees a loss. And the other painful truth is that any event that changes things to increase Trump’s odds of winning would be an event so terrible that we would want someone other than Trump in the White House to deal with it.
The delegates in Cleveland need to do the right thing. They need to take back the GOP from Trump. They need to resist Stockholm syndrome. They need to give the party and its candidates across the nation and up and down the ballot a fighting chance to win. That’s only possible by dumping Trump.