Trump has a real problem. It is California.
Presume Donald Trump wins 100% of New York’s delegates, or 95 delegates, next week. That’s not likely, but just presume he did it. He would then have to win roughly 58% of all the remaining delegates, but he only averages 45% delegate wins on election night. And California’s rules are, well, unique.
Ted Cruz has been laying ground word in California for a year. Donald Trump? His campaign is just starting and they have a deadline on May 7th. Literally Donald Trump just hired his California political director yesterday.
That deadline? The candidates in California get to submit delegates from each congressional district. If a candidate wins a congressional district, his delegates get to vote. It took Cruz more than 5 months to find delegates in all of California’s congressional districts. Cruz found 169 delegates and 169 alternates, which is a complete slate of delegates and alternates. Trump is just starting and the deadline to turn in his list is May 7th.
If Trump can’t field a complete slate, even if he wins a congressional district he won’t have delegates to vote for him.