For those of you who enjoyed your weekend away from politics, Saturday became Super Cruzday. Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump in delegates, winning two of four states up for grabs. In a third state, Louisiana, Cruz tied Trump in delegates despite Trump’s overall win. On Sunday, in Puerto Rico, Rubio crushed Trump.
In fact, what we are seeing is a massive shift in the underlying polling data away from Trump. For example, in some areas where Trump won early voting, the day of voting numbers show him losing two to one and in some cases three to one. The longer this goes on, the more the GOP rallies against Trump.
The only thing that helps Trump is Rubio staying in. Even the Rubio people are conceding that he has no path forward outside of a brokered convention. Rubio is running low on funds, is second in polling in Florida, and has no path forward except to take it at the convention. But if Rubio gets out and allies with Cruz as his running mate now, they can win Florida and the nomination in a fair fight without the need for a brokered convention.
Cruz is willing to take that deal. Rubio needs to. Cruz is going to work hard to make sure Rubio cannot win Florida is only to finally stop this and get it to a two man race. If Rubio loses Florida, not only will he have forced a brokered convention, but he will ruin his future political prospects too.
Rubio needs to leave the race ASAP and ally with Ted Cruz. He has competed in 20 primaries and caucuses thus far and only won two. He is more than 200 delegates behind Trump, more than 100 delegates behind Cruz, and running out of money. He needs to ally with Cruz.
The data this weekend shows it will work. Trump led polling in both Kansas and Maine, but Cruz beat him. It is possible to beat Trump now. The conventional wisdom has been wrong. Donald Trump had a no good, very bad weekend. Rubio dropping out will only make it worse for Trump.