It is looking that way. The Trump campaign, which had a terrible ground operation in Iowa, also has a terrible ground operation in New Hampshire. But the campaign is refusing to buy data to better target voters and is refusing to invest in new staff on the ground in New Hampshire.
They seem to be relying on polling that has Trump in the lead. But the polling in Iowa had Trump in the lead as well. This latest report on Trump’s ground game in New Hampshire should give Trump supporters some pause.
He has added just one paid organizer in the state, a move that came a month ago. Instead, he is pushing ahead with plans to campaign outside of the state in the final week of voting and will count on the glamour of famous surrogates, including his sons, who plan to tour New Hampshire beginning this weekend.
It is true, as Politico notes, that primaries need less of a ground mobilization effort that caucuses and Trump does have a bigger polling lead in New Hampshire, but in close races ground games matter. Additionally, most all of the polling showing Trump with a huge lead in New Hampshire came before the Iowa Caucuses and the polling trickling out now shows Marco Rubio is skyrocketing up in popularity.
At this point I’m wondering if Trump is just being sold a bag of goods by his staff. That would also explain Trump’s tweet about crowd sizes that turned out not to be true.